Cold Takes Audio

Amateur read-throughs of blog posts on, for those who prefer listening to reading. Available on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, and anywhere else you listen to podcasts by searching Cold Takes Audio.

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Call to Vigilance

Wednesday Sep 15, 2021

Wednesday Sep 15, 2021

Given all our uncertainties about the most important century, I'm issuing a "call to vigilance" instead of "call to action": look out for opportunities to help the most important century go as well as possible.

Tuesday Sep 14, 2021

We, the people living in this century, have the chance to have a huge impact on huge numbers of people to come - if we can make sense of the situation enough to find helpful actions.

Tuesday Sep 07, 2021

What the best available forecasting methods say about when we can expect transformative AI - and why there's no "expert field" for this topic.

Tuesday Aug 31, 2021

My preferred method of forecasting transformative AI, with pros and cons.

Tuesday Aug 24, 2021

AI progress may not trend in the ways we intuitively expect.

Tuesday Aug 17, 2021

This is the second of 4 posts summarizing hundreds of pages of technical reports focused almost entirely on forecasting one number: the year by which transformative AI will be developed.

Tuesday Aug 10, 2021

PASTA: Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement

This Can't Go On

Monday Aug 02, 2021

Monday Aug 02, 2021
The long view of economic history says we're in the midst of a huge, unsustainable acceleration. What happens next?

Monday Jul 26, 2021

Final section of the "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal" readthrough.

Monday Jul 26, 2021

FAQ about the "digital people" idea.

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