Cold Takes Audio

Call to Vigilance

Given all our uncertainties about the most important century, I'm issuing a "call to vigilance" instead of "call to action": look out for opportunities to help the most important century go as well as possible. 
https://www.cold-takes.com/call-to-vigilance/
 

How to make the best of the most important century?

We, the people living in this century, have the chance to have a huge impact on huge numbers of people to come - if we can make sense of the situation enough to find helpful actions. 
 
https://www.cold-takes.com/making-the-best-of-the-most-important-century/
 

AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the ”Experts,” Stand

What the best available forecasting methods say about when we can expect transformative AI - and why there's no "expert field" for this topic.
https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/
 

Forecasting transformative AI: the ”biological anchors” method in a nutshell

My preferred method of forecasting transformative AI, with pros and cons.
 
https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-anchors-method-in-a-nutshell/
 

Are we "trending toward" transformative AI? (How would we know?)

AI progress may not trend in the ways we intuitively expect.
https://www.cold-takes.com/are-we-trending-toward-transformative-ai-how-would-we-know/

Forecasting transformative AI: what's the burden of proof?

This is the second of 4 posts summarizing hundreds of pages of technical reports focused almost entirely on forecasting one number: the year by which transformative AI will be developed.
https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-whats-the-burden-of-proof/

Forecasting Transformative AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?

PASTA: Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement
https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/
 

This Can't Go On

https://www.cold-takes.com/this-cant-go-on/
The long view of economic history says we're in the midst of a huge, unsustainable acceleration. What happens next?

Digital People Part 3 - Implications

Final section of the "Digital People Would Be An Even Bigger Deal" readthrough.
https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world/
 

Digital People Part 2 (optional) - FAQ

FAQ about the "digital people" idea.
https://www.cold-takes.com/digital-people-faq